The issue of South China Sea dispute, particularly over the Spartly island (including Paracels), is one that I have many mixed feelings. It is perhaps as depressing, if not more depressing, than the Arab-Israeli conflict. The only saving grace thus far, is the "relative peace" and absence of significant hardship imposed on anyone.
Firstly, all parties who stake a claim are unlikely to ever compromise on their claims as the legitimacy of the government is at stake, particularly the largest claimant - China.
Secondly, most parties have already militarised part of the areas which they stake a claim to, and is unlikely to remove these installations.
Thirdly, everyone is staking a claim based on difference premises, using different historical references, and adopting a different yardstick to measure.
Fourthly, the prospective access to natural resources and control of the sea, is far too lucrative for any country to give up without serious disagreements.
The end result of this dispute can only turn in four directions.
Scenario 1: A continued period of dispute with no clear resolution, with occasional skirmishes and show of force.
Scenario 2: An all-out conflict between claimants to grab and hold their claims, in which the most powerful claimant will gain the most.
Scenario 3: An international agreement achieved through negotiation in which everyone will claim that it is biased and is imposed on them.
Scenario 4: A peaceful acceptance to the claims of the biggest and strongest power in the region with a whimper.
Among these scenarios, if current trends of a rapidly strengthening china continues, scenario 2 would be most likely.
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ASEAN, China should speed up talks on South China Sea: Indonesia
NUSA DUA, Indonesia: ASEAN and China should hasten talks for a long-pursued code of conduct to govern actions in the fraught South China Sea, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said on Tuesday.
A resolution of the dispute will send a "strong signal" to the world that the situation in the resource-rich region, seen by analysts as a potential flashpoint, is predictable and would contribute to regional stability, he said.
"We need to finalise those long overdue guidelines because we need to get moving to the next phase," Yudhoyono said in a keynote speech to Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) foreign ministers meeting on the island of Bali.
"The more we are able to do this, the better we can manage the situation in the South China Sea. I am sure that soon we will be able to commence discussion on a regional code of conduct in the South China Sea."
The Indonesian leader noted that it took ASEAN and China 10 years to agree on a declaration for a code of conduct, and they have been discussing the guidelines to implement the code for another nine years without agreement.
"Things do not necessarily have to be this slow," said Yudhoyono, setting the tone for five days of meetings culminating Saturday in the ASEAN Regional Forum security dialogue including China, Japan and the United States.
"We need to send a strong signal to the world that the future of the South China Sea is a predictable, manageable and optimistic one," he said.
China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan have overlapping claims to parts of the South China Sea including the Spratly islands.
The area is believed to be rich in oil and gas and is a crucial route for global shipping trade. The United States has defence pacts with Taiwan and the Philippines and claims a "national interest" in the free movement of shipping.
Tensions have escalated in recent weeks, with the Philippines and Vietnam protesting over what they say are increasingly forceful Chinese actions in the area, which Beijing claims in whole based on disputed historical grounds.
ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said the foreign ministers were expected to discuss the South China Sea issue on Tuesday.
"We have to send the right signal to the world that... we can manage, that we can have basic documents in place soon, that we should not lose more time," Surin told reporters in Bali.
Recent incidents include Chinese forces allegedly opening fire on Filipino fishermen, shadowing an oil exploration vessel employed by a Philippine firm and putting up structures in areas claimed by the Philippines.
Vietnam voiced anger after a Chinese vessel cut the exploration cables of a Vietnamese survey ship in May, and Beijing condemned US-Vietnam naval exercises that began last week off Vietnam's coast.
China staged its own military exercises in the South China Sea in June and announced plans to boost its offshore maritime patrol force.
Not to be left out, Taiwan has said it is considering deploying missile boats in the waters and tanks on disputed islands.
Talks on formulating guidelines to a regional code have hit a snag because of opposing positions from both sides.
China wants to negotiate bilaterally with individual ASEAN claimants, while ASEAN wants to deal with China as a group. Beijing opposes ASEAN's position because it will "internationalise" the issue.
US Secretary of State State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will attend the ASEAN Regional Forum.
- AFP/fa/ck
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资料:中国对南沙群岛主权得到国际上的承认
一、世界上许多国家、国际舆论和出版物承认南沙群岛是中国领土。
(一)英国
1、英国海军部测绘局1912年编印的《中国航海志》(China Sea Pilot),多处载明南海诸岛常有中国人民的足迹。
2、1971年,英驻新加坡高级专员说:"斯普拉特利岛(指我南威岛)是中国属地,为广东省的一部分……在战后归还中国。我们找不到它曾被任何其他国家占有的任何迹象,因此只能作结论说,它至今仍为共产党中国所有。"(载香港《远东经济评论》,1973年12月31日,39页。)
(二)法国
1、据1933年9月法国出版的《殖民地世界》杂志(LE MONDE COLONIAL ILLUSTRE)所载,1930年法国炮舰"马立休士"号测量南沙群岛的南威岛时,岛上即有中国居民三人;1933年4月,法国人强占南沙9岛时,见各岛居民全是中国人,南子礁上有7人,中业岛上有5人,南威岛上有4人,南钥岛上有中国人留下的茅屋,水井、神座等,太平岛上有一中国字牌,指示储粮处所。
2、1965年出版的法国《拉鲁斯国际地图》不但用法文拼音标明西沙、南沙和东沙群岛的中国名称,而且在各岛名称后注明属于"中国"。
(三)日本
1、1966年出版的《新中国年鉴》说:"中国的沿海线,北从辽东半岛起到南沙群岛约一万一千公里,加上沿海岛屿的海岸线,达二万公里。"
2、1972年出版的《世界年鉴》说:"中国……除大陆部分的领土外,有海南岛、台湾、澎湖列岛及中国南海上的东沙、西沙、中沙、南沙各群岛等。"
(四)美国
1、1961年出版的《哥伦比亚利平科特世界地名辞典》写道,南沙群岛是"南中国海的中国属地,广东省的一部分。"
2、1963年美国出版的《威尔德麦克各国百科全书》说:中华人民共和国各岛屿,还包括伸展到北纬4度的南中国海的岛屿和珊瑚礁。
3、1971年出版的《世界各国区划百科全书》说:"人民共和国包括几个群岛,其中最大的是海南岛,在南海岸附近。其他群岛包括南中国海的一些礁石和群岛,最远伸展到北纬4度。这些礁石和群岛包括东沙、西沙、中沙和南沙群岛。"
(五)越南
1、1956年6月15日,越南外交部副部长雍文谦见我国驻越领事馆临时代办李志民时表示:根据越南方面的资料,从历史上看,西沙、南沙群岛应当属于中国领土。当时在座的越外交部亚洲司代司长黎禄说:从历史上看,西、南沙群岛早在宋朝时就已属中国了。
2、1958年9月4日,我国政府发表领海宽度为12海里的声明,适用于中国一切领土,包括南海诸岛。越人民日报于9月6日详细报道了这一声明。越南总理范文同于9月14日向周总理表示承认和赞同这一声明。
3、1974年越南教育出版社出版的普通学校地理教科书,在《中华人民共和国》一课中写道:从南沙、西沙各岛到海南岛、台湾岛……,构成了保卫中国大陆的一座长城。
二、将南海诸岛标注为中国领土的其他国家出版的地图
1954、1961和1970年联邦德国出版的《世界大地图集》;
1954至1967年苏联出版的《世界地图集》;
1957年罗马尼亚出版的《世界地理图集》;
1957年英国出版的《牛津澳大利亚地图集》、《菲利普地图集》和1958年出版《大英百科全书地图集》;
1960年越南人民军总参地图处编绘的《世界地图》;
1968年民主德国出版的《哈克世界大地图集》;
1968年英国出版的《每日电讯世界地图集》;
1968、1969年版,法国出版的《拉罗斯地图集》;
1968年法国国家地理研究所出版的《世界普通地图》;
1972年越南总理府测量和绘图局印制的《世界地图集》;
1973年日本平凡社出版的《中国地图集》。
三、有关承认中国对南沙群岛主权的国际会议
(一)1951年旧金山对日和约会议规定日本应放弃西沙群岛和南沙群岛。当时,苏联代表团团长葛罗米柯在会上发言指出:西沙群岛和南沙群岛等岛屿是中国"不可分割的领土"。虽然旧金山对日和约没有明确提及日本将西沙、南沙群岛交还中国,但在签署旧金山对日和约的第二年,即1952年,由当时日本外务大臣冈崎胜男亲笔签字推荐的《标准世界地图集》第十五图《东南亚图》,就把和约规定日本必须放弃的西沙、南沙群岛及东沙、中沙群岛全部标绘为中国。
(二)1955年10月27日,在菲律宾首都马尼拉召开第一届国际民航组织太平洋地区飞行会议。出席这次会议的有16个国家和地区。除澳大利亚、加拿大、智利、多米尼加、日本、老挝、南朝鲜、菲律宾、泰国、英国、美国、新西兰、法国等国外,当时南越和中国台湾当局也都派代表参加了会议。大会由菲律宾首席代表担任主席,法国首席代表为大会第一副主席。会议认为南海诸岛中的东沙、西沙、南沙群岛位于太平洋要冲,这些地区的气象报告对国际民航关系很大。所以,与会代表通过第24号决议,要求中国台湾当局在南沙群岛加强气象观测(每日四次)。当时,通过这项决议时,包括菲律宾和南越代表在内,没有任何一个国家的代表对此提出异议或保留意见。
[ 来源:外交部网站 发布时间: 2009-03-13 ]